The state weather bureau forecasts heavy rainfall, ranging from 50 to 100 mm, in the northern portion of Palawan, including Cuyo and Calamian Islands.

These rains may persist until Tuesday, and residents are urged to exercise caution against threats of flooding and rain-induced landslides, especially if continuous rainfall occurs. Even fishermen are advised to be cautious in their voyages.

Meanwhile, the southwest monsoon could bring gusty conditions, particularly in coastal and upland areas that will be affected, including the entire Mimaropa region.

As of 4 a.m. on Sunday, July 23, Tropical Storm Egay (international name Doksuri) was last observed at a distance of 705 kilometers east of Daet, Camarines Norte, with wind speeds of 85 kph, gustiness of 105 kph, and moving west-northwest at a speed of 10 kph.

According to PAGASA weather forecaster Daniel James Villamil, this storm is already causing rainfall in the eastern part of Southern Luzon, Visayas, and Northeastern Mindanao.

The southwest monsoon is also responsible for the rains being experienced in Mimaropa and a large part of Visayas.

“Inaasahan na simula ngayong araw, hanggang bukas ng madaling araw, ay magpapatuloy itong generally pa west-northwestward o westward na paggalaw nitong si Egay. Afterwards, for the remainder of the forecast period, ay bahagyang mag-iiba ang direksyon nito pahilagang kanluran,” Villamil said, while it is traversing the sea in the Philippine Sea.

It will maintain its offshore distance, but there is still a possibility of a close approach or partial landfall in the vicinity of extreme northern Luzon on Tuesday (July 25) or Wednesday (July 26).

Furthermore, it is expected to make landfall on the eastern coast of Taiwan on Thursday morning, July 27.

Villamil said one factor that is influencing Egay is a weather system known as a high-pressure area (HPA) on its northern side.

“Kaya magdedepende yong galaw nitong bagyo sa magiging lakas at pagkilos nitong HPA sa northern portion ng bagyo. So, andyan pa rin ang posbilidad nang tinatawag natin na westward shift o yong bahagyang paglapit nitong track ng bagyo sa ating kalupaan sa mga susunod na araw,” he said.

It is also possible for Egay to reach typhoon category within the next 24 hours and potentially become a super typhoon as early as Tuesday. “Rapid intensification” is also expected to be possible within the next 72 hours.

However, starting on Wednesday, according to Villamil, the typhoon will begin to weaken as it traverses the Luzon Strait area and continues to weaken upon its landfall in Taiwan.

The weakening will persist as it undergoes a second landfall over mainland China.

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