Tropical storm “Quinta” is forecast by the state weather bureau to continue moving generally westward until its landfall over the Catanduanes-Albay-Sorsogon area Sunday afternoon or evening.
In its latest weather bulletin issued at 5 a.m., Sunday, PAGASA said that afterward, it will pass the Southern Luzon area until Monday afternoon or evening, then turn more west-northwestward over the West Philippine Sea (WPS).
It is likely to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Tuesday afternoon.
Further intensification prior to landfall over the Bicol Region remains likely and the possibility of Quinta making landfall as a severe tropical storm is still not ruled out.
After crossing the Philippine archipelago, this tropical cyclone will continue intensifying over the West Philippine Sea, reaching typhoon category by Tuesday evening.
Sunday through Monday morning, Quinta will bring moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Bicol Region, CALABARZON, Aurora, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Romblon, Marinduque, Calamian Islands, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, Biliran, Aklan, and Antique.
The tail-end of a frontal system will likewise bring moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over the northern portions of mainland Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Apayao, and Ilocos Norte. These two weather systems will also bring light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Metro Manila, Cordillera Administrative Region, Zamboanga Peninsula, Bangsamoro, Northern Mindanao, Caraga, and the rest of Visayas, Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, and MIMAROPA.
PAGASA said flooding, including flash floods, rain-induced landslides, and sediment-laden streamflows (i.e. lahars) may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards. PAGASA Regional Services Divisions may issue local thunderstorm/rainfall advisories and heavy rainfall warnings as appropriate.
Gale conditions will be experienced in areas under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) #2 while strong breeze to near gale conditions will be experienced in areas under TCWS #1. The potential impacts of these wind conditions to structures and vegetation are detailed in the TCWS section of this bulletin. In other areas, a strong breeze to gale conditions will also prevail over Batanes, Babuyan Islands, and the northern coastal areas of Ilocos Norte and mainland Cagayan due to the northeasterly surge.
PAGASA said rough to very rough seas will prevail on October 25 over the entire seaboards of Northern Luzon (3.0 to 5.5 m) and the seaboards of Aurora, Zambales, northern Palawan including Calamian and Kalayaan Islands (2.5 to 4.5 m), and all areas under TCWS #2 and #1 (2.5 to 5.5 m). Sea travel is risky over these waters, especially for small seacrafts.
Moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 2.8 m) will be experienced over the other seaboards of the country today. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.
At 4 a.m. Sunday, the center of Severe Tropical Storm “Saudel” outside the PAR was estimated based on all available data at 1,125 km West of Northern Luzon (17.4 °N, 109.8 °E). It has maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 115 km/h. It is moving westward at 15 km/h and is heading towards the central portion of Vietnam. With this development, this is the final update on this tropical cyclone.