The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has reported that El Niño conditions are now present in the tropical Pacific, with climate models indicating a high likelihood of further strengthening in the coming months.
In its latest advisory, DOST-PAGASA said the observed relative sea surface temperature anomaly (rSSTA) reached the +0.5°C threshold in May 2026, a key indicator that El Niño conditions have emerged.
“DOST-PAGASA reports that El Niño conditions are now present in the tropical Pacific. In May 2026, the observed relative sea surface temperature anomaly (rSSTA) reached the +0.5°C threshold,” the agency said.
It added that most climate models point to more than an 80% probability that the phenomenon will develop into a full-fledged El Niño event, which may persist until early 2027.
El Niño refers to the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), characterized by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, alongside cooler-than-average conditions over the Philippine Sea.
According to PAGASA, the phenomenon typically increases the likelihood of below-normal rainfall across much of the country, raising the risk of dry spells and drought, particularly in vulnerable areas.
However, the agency noted that above-normal rainfall may still occur in parts of the country, especially in western sections during the southwest monsoon or “habagat” season, particularly when enhanced by tropical cyclone activity.
“El Niño typically increases the likelihood of below-normal rainfall conditions across much of the country, raising the risk of dry spells and drought, particularly in vulnerable areas,” PAGASA said.
DOST-PAGASA said it will continue to monitor the evolving climate condition and its potential impacts.
It also urged government agencies and the public to prepare and implement mitigation measures, particularly in areas prone to drought as well as flooding during the habagat season.
“DOST-PAGASA will continue to closely monitor the ongoing El Niño condition and its associated impacts on the country’s climate. Meanwhile, all government agencies and the general public are strongly advised to take appropriate preparedness and response measures,” it said.
