The recent holding of Palaweños in Hainan province is being interpreted by regional analysts as a potential response to the arrest of Chinese nationals in Manila earlier this year, accused of conducting surveillance near military installations and other key state centers.
Professor Kuo Yu-Jen, director of Asia Pacific Studies at National Sun Yat-sen University, described the arrests as plain and simple hostage diplomacy during a March 24 panel on Taiwan Talks.
He noted that the timeline appears calculated. On February 25, Chinese nationals were arrested in Manila for allegedly using surveillance equipment near military sites. Just days later, the arrest of a former Palaweño scholar in Hainan was reported.
Kuo theorized that the detainees were targeted not only for symbolic reasons but also due to Palawan’s strategic position to the West Philippine Sea.
READ RELATED STORIES:
Philippines arrests Chinese man for ‘spying’ on military camps
Spy claims trap Palawan scholars in China
He linked the arrest to the 2017 Pan-South China Sea Economic Cooperation Forum, where China and the Philippines established exchange programs as part of broader regional cooperation efforts.
“First of all, I have to point out that the arrest of people from Palawan in Hainan is directly connected to the 2017 Pan-South China Sea Economic Cooperation Forum. That event marked China’s effort to seek cooperation with the Philippines. As part of that forum, a student exchange program was established as an extension of the broader cooperation framework,” Kuo said.
“Palawan Island holds a very strategic position. First, it’s an important location along an alternative waterway to the Bashi Channel. Second, it lies close to Scarborough Shoal and Sabina Shoal—areas where Chinese and Philippine coast guards have been engaged in a cat-and-mouse game for more than two years,” he added.
The 2017 forum, he said, most likely laid the foundation for the Palawan-Hainan Scholarship program, launched during the Duterte administration.
“When you arrest my people, I [will] arrest your people—that’s how China plays it,” Kuo said.
At the time, provincial officials hailed the initiative as a milestone in bilateral relations. But security experts, including former Supreme Court Justice Antonio Carpio, had warned that it could become a conduit for political influence or indoctrination by the Chinese Communist Party.
Taiwan Talks showed a copy of a 2019 Palawan News article regarding Carpio’s warning for the province to be careful in sending student scholars to China as they might be “indoctrinated.”
Echoing these concerns, Professor Yen-Pin Su of National Chengchi University, said the case reflects China’s long-standing use of coercive diplomacy.
“China isn’t exactly transparent,” Su said. “So far, they’ve only released limited information. It’s not even clear how many Palaweños were arrested or what they were accused of.”
“This kind of information was actually revealed by a member of the Palawan Provincial Board, not by China,” Su added. “That shows just how obscure and nontransparent China wants to be in dealing with this kind of incident.”
He reiterated that China rarely provides transparent information in these cases. The lack of details about the Palaweños arrested in Hainan implies they are being used as leverage, pawns in a larger diplomatic game.
Both analysts drew parallels with other countries in the region where China has engaged in alleged tit-for-tat spy exchanges, including Taiwan and South Korea. Kuo believes the strategy involves keeping charges vague, while holding detainees in legal limbo, allowing room for negotiations behind the scenes.
“It’s not about guilt or innocence,” Kuo added. “It’s about leverage.”
The two detainees were former scholars of the Hainan Government Scholarship Program, which was established in 2017 through a sisterhood agreement between Palawan and Hainan, as affirmed by local officials.
During the period of 2018 to 2022, the program offered full scholarships to 50 people from Palawan.
At a Sangguniang Panlalawigan session on March 11, Board Member Ryan Maminta raised the issue. He revealed that the Chinese authorities had two or three Palaweños kept captive.
However, the provincial government confirmed on March 12 in a statement that only two former scholars of the Hainan Government Scholarship Program were arrested, information that was also verified by the Consulate General of the Philippines in Guangzhou, China.
They were previous scholars from Batches 1 and 2 who had already graduated and had subsequently returned to China as migrant workers. The first was detained in the fourth quarter of 2024, and the second in February of this year.
After losing communication with their son, the family of the first to be detained contacted the scholarship program’s Technical Working Group (TWG) in October 2024.
The second arrest fueled speculations of a potential retaliatory motive after Manila arrested three Filipino collaborators and two Chinese nationals for allegedly spying near government locations.
Manila apprehended two Chinese nationals and three Filipino accomplices for alleged espionage operations near sensitive political and military sites in the capital.
DFA handling the case
Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro stated that the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) is addressing concerns regarding the current scenario.
Teodoro said that the DFA had issued orders that the agency would be responsible for answering any concerns about the problem.
He also did not give a reaction on the issue of retaliatory actions made by the Chinese government against the Philippines after a number of Chinese nationals were also arrested and charged with espionage.
“The thing is, yung mga nahuli natin dito ay may mga illegal activities. Recently, nag-execute yung China ng apat na Canadians. I mean, that goes to show na it’s not China per se but a political click that disregards everything,” Teodoro said.
The defense chief also criticized Chinese President Xi Jinping for what he described as an abuse of authority, which is causing damage to the leadership of his political party and the goodwill that his predecessors have planted.
“It’s their constitution itself. Kung ang constitution mismo nila, Xi thought he is part of the constitution already of China—as a core philosophy. And he is a core leader. And ‘yung scholars, sinasabi ng mga dalubhasa, it’s malleable. Ibig sabihin, pabago-bago ito. Kung ano lang ang iniisip nila, eh ‘yun na ‘yun,” he explained. (with a report from Gerald Ticke)
