SAN FRANCISCO (May 1) — China’s President Xi Jinping’s priority lies in the potential invasion of Taiwan rather than immediate actions in the West Philippine Sea.
Former USAF General Herbert “Hawk” Carlisle, the former commander of the Air Combat Command at Langley Air Force Base in Virginia, believes that Xi Jinping would refrain from significant disruptions to peace in the region unless he is confident of success.
Carlisle’s assessment is grounded in Xi Jinping’s statements regarding the timeline for taking Taiwan and his military’s preparedness for such an endeavor by 2027.
“Xi Jinping has made comments of we’re taking Taiwan by 2027. He told his military to be ready by 2027. We took that to heart. I think, we’re continuing to work on this calculus to make him think that’s not a viable plan,” Carlisle told journalist from the Philippine participating in the Friends, Partners, Allies Program on April 25 in Arlington, Virginia.
“I don’t think he would start something in the West Philippine Sea, or Straits of Malacca, or South China Sea, until he had some pretty good confidence that he could win,” he added.
Analyzing China’s actions in the disputed waters, particularly the development of military outposts like Fiery Cross Reef, Carlisle noted a clear intent to enhance military capabilities.
However, he observed that China has not yet achieved its desired level of capability in the region.
Carlisle also discussed the challenges faced by China’s economy, citing a departure from the liberalization observed under Hu Jintao’s leadership.
He pointed out the decline of Shanghai as a capitalist economic center and the repression of Hong Kong’s autonomy, attributing these developments to China’s extensive nationalization efforts. These actions, he explained, have dampened capitalist activity and economic growth in China, exacerbated by the impact of COVID-19.
“If you think about what they did with their economy, where they had kind of liberalized their economy under Hu Jintao, and, you know, Shanghai became just an incredible capitalist economic center. When they took Hong Kong, they had the capability to do it with Hong Kong, as well. But [Xi Jinping] crushed it,” stated Carlisle.
“So, I think we’re, we’re trying to continue to deter him by making him believe that he can’t win. And I think we’re doing okay,” he said.
Asked for his opinion about why some countries in the ASEAN seem to be silent about China’s aggression in WPS, he said it “still has stronghold” on them.
He elaborated that certain states may also have claims, which could explain their silence on the matter.
“You know, I think China’s a bully. That’s who they are. That’s who they’ve been in recent times. They’re just bullies,” he said.
He said bullying has also been experienced in Sri Lanka and other countries in the East Indies. However, these nations that were once bullied are now asserting themselves and pushing back.
Having said that, Carlisle thinks that the U.S. and its friends, partners and allies in the region, have done a good job of communicating with most of those nations, and Japan and Vietnam is two of them.
