The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has announced that an estimated 10 to 13 tropical cyclones are projected to enter the country from May to October this year.
According to PAGASA senior weather specialist Rusy Abastillas, one or two tropical cyclones are anticipated in May and June, with the number increasing to two to three per month from July to October.
“Based on analysis on the tropical cyclones the country had from 1948 to 2023 when the cyclone enters the Visayas in May or June, it usually recurves towards Luzon,” Abastillas stated during an online climate forum.
She also noted that in June, the cyclone could potentially traverse southern or central Luzon and eventually veer towards northern Luzon.
The forecast indicates heightened precipitation in July, with the cyclone’s predicted trajectory typically impacting Luzon.
By October, cyclones are expected to predominantly affect Luzon and the Visayas, often leading to landfall.
Senior weather specialist Remedios Ciervo highlighted a concerning development, mentioning a 60 percent likelihood of La Niña occurring between June and August.
Despite this forecast, Ciervo cautioned that rainfall might remain low, particularly in June and July, particularly in the western regions of the country.
