Typhoon Rolly has been predicted to be a Category 5 super typhoon, with winds of 185-205 kilometers per hour, by the time it makes landfall in northern Luzon on Sunday.
The local state weather bureau said Saturday afternoon however that Rolly is forecast to weaken considerably and downgrade to “severe tropical storm” or minimal typhoon over the West Philippine Sea (WPS).
Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal (TWCS) No. 3 has been raised in Catanduanes by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) over Catanduanes shortly before lunchtime Saturday as “Rolly” advances towards the eastern coast of Luzon.
Aside from Catanduanes, TCWS No. 3 was also raised over the northeastern portion of Camarines Sur (Tinambac, Siruma, Goa, Tigaon, Sagnay, San Jose, Lagonoy, Garchitorena, Presentacion, Caramoan, Sagnay), and the northeastern portion of Albay (Tiwi, Malinao, Tabaco City, Malilipot, Santo Domingo, Bacacay, Rapu-Rapu).
On the forecast track as of 2 p.m., the center of the eye of the typhoon is forecast to pass over Catanduanes – mainland Camarines Provinces area Sunday morning, and over mainland Quezon Sunday afternoon.
Violent winds and intense rainfall associated with the inner rainband-eyewall region will be experienced over Catanduanes, Camarines provinces Sunday early morning through the afternoon and over Quezon and the southern portion of Aurora Sunday afternoon through evening.
After crossing the Southern Luzon – Metro Manila area, the center of Rolly is forecast to exit the mainland Luzon landmass on Monday morning.
As of Saturday 2 p.m., the outer rainbands of “ROLLY” will bring light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas.
Beginning Sunday early morning, the passage of Rolly will bring heavy to intense rains over Metro Manila, Bicol Region, CALABARZON, Central Luzon, Marinduque, and the northern portions Occidental Mindoro and Oriental Mindoro. Moderate to heavy rains will be experienced over Cagayan Valley, Cordillera Administrative Region, Ilocos Region, Romblon, and the rest of Occidental Mindoro and Oriental Mindoro.
Flooding (including flash floods), rain-induced landslides, and sediment-laden streamflows (i.e. lahar) may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards.