Screen captured from forecast video of DOST- PAGASA Facebook page.

The typhoon Mawar outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) has no direct effect yet over the country’s land mass but could enhance the southwesterly wind flow to bring rains over Palawan once it enters the PAR line between Friday and Saturday, said the state weather bureau.

The previously super typhoon Mawar has downgraded into a typhoon, but the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) is not ruling out the possibility of re-intensification. Its maximum wind might reach up to 205 kilometers per hour (km/h) during the weekend.

As of 1 p.m. forecast, it was estimated to be 2,305 kilometers east of Visayas with maximum winds of 175 km/h and gustiness of up to 215 km/h. It is moving north-northwestward at 10 km/h in the next 12 hours.

“Bagama’t malayo ang sentro, pero kung iko-consider natin ang lawak nito na umaabot ng 300 kilometer plus na radius at pwede pa na mas maging malawak. Kaya posible na throughout the forecast period by Sunday or Monday ay may ilang areas sa Northern Luzon na direktang maapektuhan nito,” weather forecaster Engr. Chris Perez said.

It is possible to bring rains to Northern Luzon by Sunday or Monday, which could lead to the possibility of raising a warning signal.

He further explained that it is possible to have a storm for the month of May in a dry season. The super typhoon Paeng in 2018 and typhoon Urduja in 2013 both originated in the same position as Mawar. The movements of the two both recurved and did not make a landfall.

“We are not also ruling out this possibility. Pero sa nakikita natin na datos ngayon, mas malaki ang chance talaga na kumilos si Mawar sa pagitan ng Southern Taiwan and extreme Northern Luzon area,” he said.

The storm could also enhance monsoon rains over western portions of MIMAROPA, like Palawan.

Local forecaster Allain Joy Lusoc said that the prevailing southwesterly surface windflow over Palawan could be triggered and might lead to the significant amount of rain needed to meet the criteria for the rainy season declaration.

“Ang southwesterly windflow natin ay pwede iyan mag-trigger na magkaroon na tayo ng direct flow ng southeast monsoon o hanging habagat natin ay iiral na. Maging cause na mag-declare na ng rainy season ay punong-tanggapan,” said local forecaster Allain Joy Lusoc.

Rains are possible starting on Wednesday and lasting until next week over mainland Palawan, including island towns. It will also be experienced on Saturday and Sunday, particularly over Northern Palawan.

Even though no gale warning has been released, PAGASA reminds the public to be cautious as thunderstorm advisories were issued, particularly in the southern portion of Palawan.