The current dry spell caused by the mild El Niño may last only until May and normalize by June and July, local Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) chief Sonny Pajarilla said.
Pajarilla said the El Niño will not develop to become a strong phenomenon because of the southwest monsoon or habagat.
“Sa projection, mananatili lang siya na weak at magno-normalize pagdating ng second half of the year. Inaasahan natin na ang weak El Niño na ito ay, sabi ng mga climatologist ay hanggang northern hemisphere summer up until June, July lang beyond that ay magiging normal na,” he said Friday.
Even with or without El Niño, Pajarilla said the first four months of the year, January to April is usually the months that the warm phase prevails.
El Niño occurs when there is .5 degree Celsius departure from the normal temperature continuously for five consecutive months, January to May.
“Paano sinasabing El Niño, dapat nagma-manifest na may .5 degree Celsius departure from normal, higher or positive departure from normal, kapag mas mataas siya ng .5 tapos five consecutive seasons na running kung baga, limang buwan na magkakasunod, at least man lang ay nasa .5, yon ay sinasabing El Niño, bench mark na yon,” he pointed out.
For the month of May, the weather bureau expects that thunderstorms will occur during the third to last week of the month especially starting June.
That is the season when the southeast monsoon or habagat enters the country and marks the start of the rainy season, Pajarilla said.
Meanwhile, according to the PAGASA central office, a dangerous heat indices of 41.4°C was recorded in Cuyo, Palawan on April 4.