The agriculture department said the potential increase in actual harvest and hitting the target of 11.53 million metric tons (MT) of unhusked rice or palay in the second semester will provide a 95-day ending stock of rice in 2021.
Undersecretary Engr. Ariel Cayanan of the Department of Agriculture (DA) said in a virtual presser that the country recorded 8.79 million MT harvest during the first semester of the year. If the DA will meet the target in the second semester, it will have a total harvest of 20.3 million MT in 2021.
“Sakaling maabot natin ang target na ito sa second semester, tayo ay makakapagtala sa 20.3 million metric ton na higit doon sa nabanggit natin na 19. 29 million metric ton production last year,” Cayanan said.
The rice supply outlook of the department based on the actual rate of import arrival shows 1, 376 ending stock with 39 days to last in the month of August due to the absence of harvest. It went up to 1, 676 ending stock in September with 51 days to last.
If the harvest record continuously improves, the country will attain 3, 314 ending stock with 95 days to last.
“Ang buwan ng Agosto ay ang ating leanest month, wala tayong harvest kaya meron lang tayong 39 days (to last) – alam din naman natin na ito ‘yong time na pinapayagan muna natin ang managed import natin. Para pagdating ng harvest ay hindi na makakapasok ang imports,” Cayanan explained.
“Sabi niyo nga paakyat na ngayong September, mapapansin niyo na naging 51 days (to last) na. Ang ating pangatlong quarter ay magtatapo sa 51 days, ang peak ng harvest natin ay October, November, December. Kung gaganda pa rin ang ating targeted projection, ang ending inventory ay 95 days o mahigit tatlong buwan,” he added.
He also said that there are areas in the country that have low farm gate prices. Based on the palay price monitoring (PRISM) record of DA as of the second week of September, the average price for fresh is P14.89 while the dry palay has P18.10 average.
The MIMAROPA region has P14.38 average price for fresh palay, while P19.30 is the farm gate price for dry palay. Palawan recorded P13.50 average price for fresh palay and P19.00 for dry palay.
“Meron talagang totoo na mga mangilan-ilan, exemptional na sampu pero ito ay basang-basa at sira na palay,” he said.
“Kampante tayo, maganda ang supply ng bigas nitong September patungong pasko. Sana naman ay hindi tayo dayuhin ng mga bagyong malalakas,” ASec. Noel Reyes said.
Meanwhile, the third quarter of 2021 will end with 85 % sufficiency level for lowland vegetable supply while the highland vegetable supply outlook showed a 103 % sufficiency level.
The fishery supply on the other hand has a 100 % total sufficiency level in the third quarter, and might increase to 102% in the fourth quarter and end with 103% in 2021.